歐美研究季刊第46卷第1期 - page 74

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“high propensity” list. It indicates which households the police
believe are most at risk of further abuse and violence. This list is
generated by three sets of input: (1) a computer program scans
complaints for worrisome terms like “kill,” “suicide” and “alcohol.”
Then, it helps the officers to prioritize the more combustible cases.
(2) Each time a domestic violence case is opened, all previous
reports relating to that victim are automatically forwarded to the
assigned officer. (3) “The officers’ gut instincts and the fear levels of
the victim” are factored into the decision of whom to place on the
high-propensity list.
It appears that the New York City police department lacks a
coordinated system of analysis capable of determining which
perpetrators are likely to strike again. If this is so, then the police
force in Strathclyde, Scotland may have the answer. By bringing
together local housing authorities, non-police agencies to gather
community-led intelligence about the perpetrators, and the police
force’s own surveillance team, the Strathclyde force has been able
to check (rein in) and stay ahead of some episodes of VAW. In
particular, the Strathclyde domestic abuse unit has devised
“predictive analysis” that includes: identifying events like football
matches during which incidents of domestic violence have been
known to peak, identifying individuals who are likely to commit
acts of violence during the matches, and then showing up at their
homes. The results are promising; within the police force’s area, the
domestic abuse unit has “halved the domestic violence rate” from
eleven homicides to six (Hirsch, 2010). Thus, predictive analysis as
developed by the Strathclyde police force is an important tool.
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Indeed, as an element of the best of policing, it ought to be a
component of prevention of VAW. Let us make it the third, and last,
component.
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Predictive analysis dovetails with “predictive policing,” which has been
experimented with by dozens of police departments across the U.S.A. (Eligon &
Williams, 2015). For an in-depth report of New Haven’s sexual-assault unit that
deploys “better, more responsive policing,” see Dobie (2016).
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