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歐美研究
Confirmation of Climate Models
Hsiang-Ke Chao
Department of Economics, National Tsing Hua University
No. 101, Sec. 2, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan
E-mail:
hkchao@mx.nthu.edu.twHsien-I Chiu
Department of Economics, National Tsing Hua University
No. 101, Sec. 2, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan
E-mail: E-mail:
hsieni@mx.nthu.edu.twAbstract
By critically appraising the logical positivist theory of confirma-
tion and the philosophical accounts for climate simulation models, this
paper investigates the issues of model confirmation in the contexts of
scientific practice of climate study. The epistemic merits of simulation
models, which are regarded as fictions due to the idealization in the
model building process, are to serve as heuristic tools the model users
use to achieve a certain purposes. In climate sciences, models are thus
evaluated according to whether or not they are adequate for the pur-
poses of empirical examinations.
Key Words
:
climate change, scientific models, climate simulation
models, confirmation, uncertainty