Taiwan and the United States both held presidential elections in 2020. Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen won a second term with record-breaking support, and Biden succeeded Trump to the White House in 2021. The Trump administration brought dramatic changes to the international order and multilateralism, the transatlantic partnership between the US and Europe, and the relationship between the US and China. The Trump legacy will have long-lasting effects. Despite the change of administration, the United States has continued to view China as a strategic competitor. Moreover, in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Chinese military exercises around Taiwan in August 2022, there has been growing concern that China’s territorial claims will lead to conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

To what extent has the Biden administration continued the policies of the Trump administration, and to what extent has Washington returned to multilateralism and left the door open to rapprochement with Beijing? How are China, the EU, and NATO likely to respond? What are the lessons of the Russian invasion of Ukraine for Taiwan’s security? What is the risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait in the coming years? These are key topics for the thematic research group on US-China-Taiwan relations. Specifically, this project will study the following topics:

(1) reviewing Taiwan policy under the Trump administration and examining areas of continuity and discontinuity with Taiwan policy under the Biden administration; 

(2) trade relations between Taiwan and the United States and the feasibility of a bilateral investment agreement (BIA), a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA), and including Taiwan in multilateral trade and investment agreements; 

(3) the Biden administration's impact on US-Taiwan-China relations;

(4) whether the Biden administration's attitude toward CPTPP and the Indo-Pacific strategy amounts to a “return to Asia 2.0,” a “New Cold War,” or both;  

(5) the role of the US Congress in the US-China-Taiwan triangle; 

(6) tensions surrounding trade and technology in US-China-Taiwan relations;

(7) the lessons of the Russian invasion of Ukraine for Taiwan’s security; and

(8) the overall risk of China attempting to unilaterally change the status quo through force or coercion.